Hovde misses on absentee ballot claim

Losing Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde has, so far, refused to concede his loss to incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. 
A week after Election Day, Hovde posted a five-minute video to his X account with his thoughts on the race.
“I believe it’s better not to comment until I have the facts,” he said in the first few seconds of the video. “Like many of my supporters, I was shocked by what unfolded on election night.” 
Hovde went on to say that at 4 a.m. Milwaukee updated its count to include roughly 108,000 absentee ballots and that Baldwin won “nearly 90% of those ballots.”
“Statistically, this outcome seems improbable,” Hovde said. “As it didn’t match the pattern from same day voting in Milwaukee, where I received 22% of the vote.”  
Let’s see if Hovde is correct. 
Absentee ballots are just a portion of the total votes in any election. But since Hovde is focused on absentee ballots, it’s fairly easy to see his claim is incorrect by going to the city of Milwaukee’s election results page. It should be noted that some absentee voters chose third-party candidates for the U.S. Senate or skipped that race.
Milwaukee received 108,964 absentee ballots by Nov. 5, according to the unofficial count. 
Of that group, Baldwin received 88,229 and Hovde received 17,699 absentee ballots. 
So Baldwin got about 80.9% of the absentee vote, and Hovde got about 16.2% of it. 
Clearly Baldwin did not get “nearly 90%” of the absentee vote.
In comparison, Baldwin slightly outperformed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who received 87,852 absentee votes, or 80.6%. Republican President-elect Donald Trump outperformed Hovde by receiving 18,698 or 17.1%. 
That pattern occurred throughout the state as Baldwin outperformed Harris and Hovde was not carried by Trump, who ended up winning the state. 
Hovde is claiming the absentee ballot pattern doesn’t match what he got on Election Day, so let’s review what happened in Milwaukee on Election Day. 
There were 140,043 votes cast in Milwaukee, according to the unofficial count. Of that number Baldwin received 102,598 and Hovde received 29,574.
So Baldwin pulled down 73.2% of the vote on Election Day compared with Hovde’s 21.1% of that vote. That’s not quite 22%, as he said, but it’s closer than what he said Baldwin’s absentee vote was.
Often the same-day vote split is different from absentee votes because traditionally more Republicans vote on Election Day than earlier. Republicans this year pushed for more of their supporters to vote absentee. 
The vote being counted early Wednesday morning shouldn’t have surprised Hovde either. 
Under Wisconsin law, absentee ballots cannot be processed before 7 a.m. on Election Day. The Republican-controlled state Senate earlier this year let a bipartisan bill die that would have made it possible for clerks to start processing absentee ballots the day before the election and therefore finish counting all the ballots at a more reasonable time on Election Day — thus avoiding updating the results at 4 a.m.
In suggesting there might be irregularities with the vote count, Hovde claimed Baldwin got “nearly 90%” of the absentee ballots in Milwaukee. 
According to the city’s results on its website, Baldwin got 80.9% of the vote, which is not “nearly 90%.” 
Our definition of False is “the statement is not accurate.” That fits here.
Eric Hovde, X post, Nov. 12, 2024
City of Milwaukee, election results, last checked Nov. 13, 2024
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, GOP lets absentee ‘ballot dump’ measure die, leaving door open to false fraud claims, March 13, 2024